Crude Oil Futures Continue To Fall, PTA Low

Recently, WTI crude oil futures continued to fall, hitting a low point in the past 4 years.

Although PTA futures rebounded slightly before the new year's holiday, the first trading day of the new year fell by nearly 4%, and the main 1505 contract now runs at 4700 yuan / ton line.

In short term, PTA fundamentals remain weak, and PTA futures are still in a bear's way.

Cost support is limited.

The decline in crude oil makes the whole

The cost collapsed, of which PX declined significantly.

At present, the price of FOB Korean PX has dropped to near $800 / tonne, and the production cost of PTA has obviously shifted down.

In addition to the collapse of crude oil, the excessive supply of PX is also an important reason for the fall of the company.

However, in the case of a larger decline in upstream naphtha and MX, PX production profits are still good, and the enthusiasm of PX suppliers to reduce production has dropped significantly.

At present, the operating rate of domestic PX installations has increased to around 74%, while the overall operating rate in Asia has been higher, about 77%, and domestic PX stocks have been rising slowly.

Later, if there is no reduction in production, huge social inventory pressure will make PX price difficult to rebound.

In 2014, the reduction in production was an important factor in the price of PTA.

The reduction in production in March and May effectively supported the spot price of PTA.

However, the reduction effect in December was greatly reduced, and the price of PTA did not rise or fall.

The reason is, on the one hand, the reduction of production is expected to be reflected in November; on the other hand, the production duration is short, and the continuous decline of crude oil has led to the spread of market sentiment.

Behind this decline, PTA production profits have reduced the power of PTA enterprises to cut production.

The reduction in production in May lasted for a long time, mainly due to the severe loss of PTA production.

At present, the price of PTA is still near the cost of production, and even some large factories still have small profits. Therefore, the PTA load has picked up faster. At present, the PTA operating rate has risen from 52% low in the previous stage to more than 70%.

At present, the downstream of PTA has entered the traditional off-season.

Despite the fact that the polyester link has been well controlled in the previous period and the operating pressure is small, the start-up load has remained at around 80%, but the terminal load has taken the lead. For example, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped from 81% near the beginning of November to the current 68%, and the gliding rate was larger.

Affected by the terminal demand, the production and sale rate of polyester enterprises has dropped sharply, and the pace of reducing market losses will be accelerated.

Reference to the 2014 Spring Festival polyester load is only about 65%, it is estimated that polyester loading will have a larger reduction in space this year.

On the whole, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX are still in a weak position. The driving force of PTA cost is not enough, and the effect of PTA's production reduction is not as good as before.

Under the condition that the overall atmosphere of commodities has not yet been reversed, it is difficult for PTA futures to take long short lines.